2023 NFL Draft Why Floridas Anthony Richardson isnt as risky of a pick as advertised
2023 NFL Draft Why Floridas Anthony Richardson isnt as risky of a pick as advertised
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Much of the pre-draft coverage on Florida QB prospect Anthony Richardson has centered around his incredibly high ceiling and pegged him as a boom-or-bust pick. Sky's the limit, but, there are red flags.The logic seems pretty sound. He blew up the combine with a QB record 40.5-inch vertical and 10-foot, 9-inch broad jump, while running a 4.43 40-yard dash with a body (6-foot-4, 244 pounds) that more closely resembles Derrick Henry. He can break a long run at any time or launch the ball 75 yards through the air.On the flip side, his overall lack of experience and accuracy i sues are concerns. His 13 career starts in college would match Mitchell Trubisky for the fewest by a QB drafted in the first round since 2000. His 24 career touchdown pa ses would be the fewest by a first-round QB since Michael Vick (drafted first overall in 2001). The last first-round QB with a college completion rate as low as Richardson's (54.7) was Jake Locker (54.0 -- eighth overall pick in 2011).But what if Richardson actually has the highest floor AND ceiling of any QB prospect in this year's draft? Moses Malone Jersey The recent history of high-drafted QB prospects who were elite rushers suggest that Richardson actually may have a higher floor than you think. In case his rushing prowe s is in question, he ran for 654 yards in 12 starts last season (54.5 rushing yards per game) while leading all FBS quarterbacks with 6.3 yards per rush. He showed off his ability at Florida with plays like this: THERE GOES THAT MAN! takes it to the house. Florida Gators Football (@GatorsFB) He's without a doubt an elite rusher. So I looked at the 66 QBs drafted in the first round since 2000, splitting them into three categories. Elite rushers, the middle and statues. I chose 18 elite rushers based on ranking the QBs in terms of most rushing yards per game in a season in their college careers, with Lamar Jackson at the top (123.2 rushing yards per game) and Josh Allen at the bottom of the elite rusher list (37.4 rushing yards per game).Here's the full list. Lamar Jackson. Johnny Manziel, Cam Newton, Vince Young, Jake Locker, Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray, Robert Griffin III, Tim Tebow, Trey Lance, Michael Vick, Marcus Mariota, Alex Smith, Justin Fields, Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen. It's not perfect (Carson Wentz at North Dakota State is the one big outlier) but mostly captures QBs with a rushing profile like Richardson, with a big enough sample size to draw some conclusions. There was a clear drop off between the bottom of the elite rushers list -- Josh Allen -- and the middle category, featuring QBs like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Andrew Luck and Ben Roethlisberger. They have been known to make plays with their legs, but I wouldn't call them elite running QBs. Then there's the statues. QBs like Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer and company.To determine their floors in the NFL, I used expected points added per dropback (EPA per dropback), a per-play efficiency measure which takes into account a QBs impact as a pa ser and rusher.Here's an idea of what a good or bad mark is for EPA per dropback. Josh Allen recorded a 0.19 mark in 2022 (second in NFL). Kenny Pickett was at -0.02 (23rd in NFL) and Zach Wilson was one of the lower totals at -0.14 (32nd in NFL). Among the 18 elite rushing QB prospects drafted in the first round since 2000, only four had a negative EPA per dropback rate for their NFL careers. None had a rate below -0.1. The rate of QBs in the other two categories (the middle, statues) to fall into those buckets was much higher. For example, 15 of the 26 statues had a negative EPA per dropback in their careers.Elite RushersThe MiddleStatuesTotal QBs182226Negative EPA/dropback4715< -0.1 EPA/dropback045> 0.1 EPA/dropback353Average EPA/dropback0.040.050.04The average EPA per dropback of these groups were very similar, but this data shows the floor of the elite rushers is higher. This pa ses the eye test, too. If you look at the list of 18 elite rushers above, really only Johnny Manziel and Tim Tebow were true busts, while Vince Young and Jake Locker could probably be lumped into Robert Covington Jersey that category as well. That's not bad when we're talking about 18 QBs given how volatile drafting that position in the first round can be.Most a sume Richardson will need time to develop and learn behind a veteran QB. That may be true, but this data also supports the notion that Richardson's rushing ability could le sen the learning curve that comes with his inexperience and accuracy i sues. It provides him with a higher floor. He can still make plays with his legs even as he goes through growing pains in other areas.I looked at the EPA per dropback for the three above groups for their first two seasons in the NFL when QBs can experience the most growing pains. One-third of the 18 elite rushers had a negative EPA per dropback in their first two seasons. It's nearly 50 percent for the middle and over two-thirds for the statues.This is pretty telling, too: Only one of the 18 elite rushers had a EPA per dropback below -0.1 in their first two seasons (Alex Smith). Nine of the 26 statues fell below that threshold, showing that QBs who are big rushing threats have a much higher floor than QBs with no mobility early in their careers.Elite RushersThe MiddleStatuesTotal QBs182226Negative EPA/dropback61018< -0.1 EPA/dropback149> 0.1 EPA/dropback541Average EPA/dropback0.030.03-0.05Still, you can't take the data all in a vacuum. After all, as I mentioned off the top, Richardson's inexperience (13 college starts) and accuracy (54.7 completion rate) are major outliers. The potential high ceiling Richardson po se ses may depend on his ability to improve his accuracy.So the question is, how much can QBs improve their accuracy? Of the nine first-round QBs drafted since 2000 with the lowest completion rates in college, all increased their percentages in the NFL. Five of the nine increased their completion rates by roughly five percent (or more), including the likes of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson Joel Embiid Jersey . A five percent increase would leave Richardson around 60 percent, or the same rate Cam Newton posted when he won MVP in 2015. Still among the worst in the league, but plenty good enough to be effective coupled with his big-play ability.Comp PctComp Pct increase in NFLKyle Boller47.8%+8.9%Jake Locker54.0%+3.5%Joey Harrington55.2%+0.9%Michael Vick56.0%+0.2%Josh Allen56.2%+6.3%Lamar Jackson57.0%+6.7%Matthew Stafford57.1%+6.1%Jay Cutler57.2%+4.8%J.P. Losman57.8%+1.4%So it'd be easy to a sume a polarizing prospect like Richardson should be described as boom or bust, but the data shows it's time to consider changing our thought proce s. Richardson might actually have a higher floor. Plus, it could continue to rise in an age of dual-threat QBs where teams are building their offenses more effectively around these QBs. Not to mention, there is a precedent for QBs like Richardson improving their accuracy significantly in the pros.Add it all up and the QB many would say is the riskiest at the top of the draft, could be much safer than advertised.
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